Underdog MMA’s UFC Parlay: UFC Vegas 32
UFC Vegas 31 was a great card for both my bankroll and from an entertainment perspective. We look to keep things rolling this week as former 2-time Bantamweight Champion TJ Dillashaw makes his long-awaited return to the octagon against surging prospect and former training partner Cory Sandhagen. The main event is guaranteed to produce fireworks but it’s some fights earlier on the card that I think can produce some winning tickets.
The first fighter I am looking to bet is Kyler Phillips in his bout against Raulian Paiva. I was able to beat the line movement on Kyler and lock him in at -215 a week ago but that line is long gone as he sits around -290 now. I wouldn’t recommend playing him straight at that price so I am going to look to parlay him. Kyler’s record sits at 9-1 with 5 knockouts and 1 submission while his opponent Paiva is 20-3 with 4 knockouts and 3 submissions. Paiva is moving up to 135 pounds after winning a unanimous decision over Zhalgas Zhumagulov at 125 pounds in January (Paiva missed weight weighing in at 129lbs). Phillips’ last fight was a decision win over undefeated Song Yadong back in March.
Phillips looked excellent at range in that fight, landing a clean head kick in the first round followed by 2 clean punches and a spinning back kick, he also mixed in some beautiful takedowns. Phillips ate some punches from Yadong whenever Yadong closed the distance and exchanged in the pocket with him. Song packs a lot of power for 135 and has a 58% finish rate but Kyler was able to eat his best shots and return fire with ease. Paiva has nowhere near the power that Yadong has with his last knockout coming against Mark de la Rosa who was cut from the UFC following a 4 fight losing streak. Paiva and Phillips will be the same height when they step in the cage on Saturday but Phillips should be the much stronger fighter and will have a 3-inch reach advantage.
The final leg of the parlay will be Adrian Yanez’s moneyline at -200. Yanez takes on Randy Costa who boasts an impressive 6-1 record with all 6 wins coming by knockout. The problem is the very low level of competition he has faced. His 2 UFC wins are over Journey Newson and Boston Salmon. Newson is 0-2 in the UFC and Salmon went 0-2 in the promotion losing by first-round KO each time before being cut. On the regional scene, Costa’s opponents have a combined record of 7-28 with 16 of those 28 losses being knockouts. The only time Costa has been out of the first round he lost via submission to Brandon Davis who went 2-5 in the UFC before being cut. Yanez who has never been finished in 16 professional fights should be able to withstand Costa’s early onslaught and pick up a late KO or decision victory.