UFC Vegas 28 Fight of the Night | Ponzinibbio vs. Baeza
By: Billy Brisbane (@gettin_BILLs_)
UFC Vegas 28 is headlined by two Heavyweight prospects and showcases a lot of other Heavyweight talents. But, the people’s main event/fight of the night will take place at middleweight.
Former Ultimate Fighter Brazil Season 2 winner Santiago Ponzinibbio will make his return inside the octagon again after being knocked out after a long layoff just 5 months ago. Ponzinibbio was previously on a seven-fight winning streak inside the UFC over some decent names like Mike Perry, Court McGee, Sean Strickland, and Neil Magny. Coming off an injury and a long layoff, we saw him look like a shell of himself on January’s Abu Dhabi card vs. Jingliang Li.
Out of 31 pro fights 27 wins, 17 by KO./TKO, six by submission, and seven decision wins. The once potent finisher now takes on the new rising prospect Miguel “Carmel Thunder” Baeza. Baeza is currently undefeated at 10-0 with seven wins by KO/TKO, one by submission, and two by decision. The real question is, can Baeza overcome being the less experienced fighter inside the octagon and use his athletic advantages to win this fight?
This fight has had the most line movement out of all the fights on the card. The sportsbooks originally opened Ponzinhibbio at -140; that number got steamed the opposite direction with Baeza being bet up to a -140 favorite. Since then, all week the money has been coming in on the Ponzinibbio side, and rightfully so being the more experienced fighter but, I think his best days could be behind him. Even though he’s only 34 years old, injuries can be the deciding factor to anyone’s career no matter how promising they once looked. Ponzinibbio’s last win came in 2018, this is great matchmaking by the UFC because Miguel Baeza is a longer, quicker version of Ponzinibbio.
The sharp action is to buy into the favorite here at a suppressed -125 price tag. It should be Miguel Baeza time to shine and continue his way into title contention, I expect this fight to take place on the feet Baeza has a 100% takedown defense and edge in the striking stats landing 4.64 significant strikes per minute but does absorb 3.89 strikes per minute which would be his only red flag here. I wouldn’t even mind if you take a shot at the Under 2.5 Rounds -146 odds and bet on the violence happening in this fight.