UFC Fight Island 7 – Best Bets w/ @gettin_BILLs_
By: Billy Brisbane (@gettin_BILLs_)
UFC is back finally; it feels so weird not having fights for the weeks that we did. Expect a lot of more articles from me highlighting things in my research process. Even though I love to live bet, there’s a method to the madness, and it starts by having a strong feel for the prelims and the early main card. Make sure you check out (20) Pub Sports Radio – YouTube to follow the live commentating and top handicappers across the world placing live bets.
Austin Lingo (-225)
Jacob Killburn (+185)
Austin Lingo had a very disappointing UFC debut vs. Youssef Zalal. He was dominated in all aspects of MMA and was lined as the -225 favorite. The casuals got burned taking the chalk, and the sharps fell in love with Zalal that night. Personally, the oddsmakers just lined the fight wrong, and if it weren’t for that, we would have a different opinion of Lingo. Before his UFC debut, on his resume, four finishes inside 1 minute is obviously a talented fighter. While I don’t think he’s competing for any titles anytime soon, he should bounceback strong against Killburn. A potential prelim star here perfect matchup against Killburn, who doesn’t seem like a high talented UFC fighter. When watching tape, he’s technically sound but isn’t impressive in one particular category. Killburn often backs up and loses position in the cage and can be lured into a backyard type of fight style. Some people expect some improvements from Kilburn because of the move to American Top Team. But Lingo also is coming from a solid camp called Fortis MMA in Texas. My only concern with Lingo is this is the first time fighting outside of the state of Texas. In Abu Dhabi there’s always a potential risk of a fighter not being able to adapt to the different time changes.
Safest Prop: Under 2.5 (-115)
Best Odds Prop: Austin Lingo by KO/TKO (+350)
Other Props to look at:
Fight Not to Go the Distance (-118)
Ramazan Emeev (-270)
David Zawada (+210)
This is a very interesting fight here for Emeev to get some momentum going his way for his career. Former Combat Sambo World Champion fighting out of Dagestan, Russia, he showed some promise with wins over Niklas Stolze, Stefan Sekulic, Anatoly Tokov, and Alberto Mino. The loss to Rocco Martin, though, is when the hype train ended. Emeev is not the most exciting fighter but a winning fighter with a boring game plan. I don’t see Zawada knocking Emeev out; his only path to victory would be a fluke submission. Emeev is my favorite betting favorite on the card. Hopefully, there isn’t a first-round surprise here and get hot at Fight Island.
Safest Prop: Emeev by decision (-110)
Best Odds Prop: Zawada by submission (+700)
Other Props to Look at: (FD Only) Emeev by sub or dec (-175)
Joaquin Buckley (-270)
Alessio Di Chirico (+220)
Buckley was one of the hottest fighters in 2020, with the most insane knockout of the year. He looks to continue his path against Di Chirco, a lackluster busted prospect. Buckley has the volume edge here in this fight, and for a muscular guy, he shows great endurance. This feels like a setup fight for Buckley and a potential cut for Di Chirico, who is coming into this fight with three losses in a row. Buckley, I don’t think, is going to come out and knockout Alessio so I would be underweight on him for daily fantasy. But this fight sets up well for parlays and some props.
Safest Prop: Buckley Moneyline in a Parlay
Best Odds Prop: Buckley by dec (+270)
Other Props to Look at Buckley by KO / TKO RD2 (+600)
- Last three wins have come via KO / TKO in round 2.