UFC Brunson vs. Shahbazyan: The Round Robin
By; Clint MacLean (@DieHardMMAPod)
Saturday’s UFC event is full of chalky spots. Those of you who follow my work and betting style know that I simply hate chalk. I am a dog hunter. I am a value hunter! I look for big juicy spots to club a bookmaker over the head and drag that + money back to my cave to feed my mate. Unfortunately, there are times where I simply do not hear the dogs barking. There are sad, dark times where I agree with the chalk, and so does everybody else, so the lines get a bit wider than I would like to see. There is only one option left for us, in that case, my friends! Parlay!
Something I preach regularly is that Vegas was built on parlays, and I caution my followers against over-extending on parlay betting. There is nothing worse than building a nice 4-5 leg parlay and having that one fighter just crap the bed and ruin the whole thing. You saw the dollar signs! You were getting 4-1 on your bet! It was there!! You could imagine yourself throwing the cash in the air and dancing around your room like an idiot… but no. Now it’s gone. It happens every week! All too often, I hear the stories and see the bet slips of the people who miss just that one all-important leg and are left with nothing. Like Trinaldo vs. Herbert, for instance.
— Blue Corner Fighting (@blue_fighting) July 25, 2020
The rule is to be careful with parlays, but in the sage words of Captain Barbosa, “The Code is more like guidelines than actual rules…” We have several mid-level favorites this week that I think are all going to get it done, and rather than lay an unGodly amount of chalk on them, I think we talk about an underrated betting strategy known as the Round Robin.
If you have ever bet on an online site, then you have probably seen that little “Round Robin” checkbox, and you may not know what it means. What it does is take all of your betting selections and make parlays out of them, and you can select the number of legs. Round Robins are not as easy to do at the window because you have to spell each bet out, but it’s still something do-able if you know what you’re setting up. Now, before we get too crazy, I am not suggesting you make multiple 3 or 4 leg parlays this week, but I do think that this is a prime week to make 2-teamer parlays with these favorites.
Let’s go over the pick.
Starting off our evening, I would take a look at Markus Perez. He is a solid fighter who has a reputation as a finisher and is fighting the unimpressive Eric Spicely. Spicely was booted from the UFC after getting finished three times in a row and punched his ticket back to the big show after winning two regional scene fights and taking a short notice opportunity against Deron Winn, which he lost. Now that he is on the UFC’s roster, they might as well use him to prop up some actual talent, and Perez is the lucky winner of the Spicely sweepstakes. Once Spicely gets tired, I think Perez will just unload on him and possibly catch him with one of Perez’s patented spinning elbows or a submission for a late finish. Perez sits around -200, and I think he is a solid leg in our Round Robin.
— UFC Canada (@UFC_CA) February 3, 2019
Next up, we have Ray Borg. Borg is a bit undersized for 135, but he has such high-level wrestling ability that he makes up for it. The only issue Borg has at 135 is when he takes on more physical, bigger, stronger grapplers. We saw Borg’s underrated boxing ability in his last fight, and he nearly won a heated battle with Ricky Simon, who is a nightmare matchup for Borg. Now Ray is welcoming UFC newcomer Nathan Maness to the cage, and while this kid is a very talented striker, he simply doesn’t wrestle. Unless he is a grappling ace and has just never shown those wrestling chops off, I expect Borg to mat return Maness until his soul leaves his body. Borg can be had for -245 at the time of writing.
Insane scramble by Ray Borg pic.twitter.com/cIEXEoOq5N
— Zee (@Rockstarzee) February 11, 2020
The next favorite on the car I like is Gerald GM3 Meerschaert. Now I have received some push back on this one from people “in the know,” but I think Meerschaert even as a short-notice replacement can handle the aging Ed Herman. Herman has power in his hands still, but he is slow and plodding and can be taken down. If Gerald knows what’s good for him, he will take Herman down and grind him until he gasses out. There is some risk on this one due to Herman’s KO power, but I am taking the show. GM3 is currently a -175 favorite.
— LORD HONKY HUMUNGUS (@Mr_Honky) December 14, 2018
Kevin Holland is probably my favorite fighter on the card and not just as a fan. This kid Holland has every physical advantage in the book, and he brings fast hands, a solid gas tank, and a BJJ black belt to the cage. Giles is a full-time police officer, and I question how dedicated he is to the fight game. On top of that, we have seen Giles look for a way out on more than one occasion, and Holland is exactly the type of fighter who will make him quit again. Holland is -210, and even as a short-notice replacement, I am surprised this line isn’t wider.
— All Sports Py (@AllSportsPy) May 17, 2020
So that gives us five fighters that we like all around the 2-1 range! If you Round Robin these five fighters, you will match them up into parlays of 2 with odds ranging from +100 to +140 or so. Make sure you bet slightly smaller because whatever unit size you choose, you will be multiplying it by 10 to complete this betting strategy. Rather than 3 or 4 leg parlays and having one loss break the bank, all the two-leggers will still be alive if somebody drops the ball. If you want to get the crazy, go ahead and add Edmen Shahbazyan in there from the main event if you need just a little bit more action, but I am pretty confident about all of these favorites to get it done this week.