After taking a short hiatus with UFC Uruguay, I am back with my best bets for UFC 241: Cormier vs Miocic 2. This is one hell of a card. The main and co-main event might be some of the most interesting fights of the year, and the under-card is riddled with top-tier prospects. Let’s find winners and make some money.
Ian Heinisch -150 over Derek Brunson
This is the first fight that once I saw it, I absolutely loved the spot and, more importantly, the price. Ian is a super strong wrestler/boxer who bullies his opponents around the octagon with brute physicality and wears them out to win fights. His opponent Derek Brunson is pretty much the same type of fighter. The issue lies in that Brunson is now 35 and his last couple of fights have not been the best in terms of his work rate. His last bout against Elias Theodorou was basically a sparring match where Theodorou refused to engage which caused him to lose a decision; prior to that, he got stopped by current interim Champion Israel Adesanya at the end of the first round and knocked in to oblivion by Jacare in the first round as well. Brunson should get some shots in early in this fight, but he isn’t going to be able to do enough to get Heinisch off of him for the full 15 minutes. I see Heinisch constantly moving forward tagging Brunson and winning a convincing decision where he just does more in the fight.
Anthony Pettis -130 over Nate Diaz
Nate Diaz is back off a 3 year layoff following his decision loss to Conor McGregor at UFC 202 and he returns to face “Showtime” himself, Anthony Pettis. I do not understand why Nate would take this fight; he constantly gets torn up by leg kicks and Pettis has some of the best kicks in the division. Now I get that Diaz can usually overwhelm his opponents, and is a cardio machine, but that’s a tall task as he will be on the receiving end of brutal kick after kick slowing down his movement. The scary thing is Pettis is getting better. His move up to welterweight in his last fight helped his power as evident by his knockout win against Stephen Thompson, and even though Diaz has a chin of granite, he’s going to be feeling these shots. Nate is a great jiu-jitsu practitioner, but he does’t really force takedowns, and that’s the only way I see him winning this fight. That will not happen. Pettis is going to come in, avoid the pressure of Diaz, and chop his legs out from under him round after round to win another decision on this card, but I’m sure it’s going to be fun while it lasts.
Daniel Cormier -140 over Stipe Miocic
The rematch is here! No, not Cormier vs Jones 3, but Stipe vs DC 2. The first fight happened a little over a year ago on July 7, 2018 and DC clocked Stipe with a right hand at the end of the first round to knock him out. Since that bout, Stipe hasn’t had another fight and Cormier ran through Derrick Lewis in succinct fashion in November. This is also likely the last fight in Daniel Cormier’s career and he isn’t going out on a loss; the guy has fought a who’s who in MMA from Josh Barnett, Dan Henderson, Frank Mir, Anderson Silva, Anthony Joshua, etc., and the only man to defeat him was Jon Jones. Stipe poses an interesting threat since he does have a wrestling background and very good power but DC is a tough man and won’t get laid out off of one shot. Plus, if this bout were to become more of a grappling match, there are not many better wrestlers than former Olympian Daniel Cormier. This will be the proverbial cherry on top to cap off a hell of a career for Daniel Cormier as he dirty boxes, clinches, and generally outworks Stipe wherever this fight takes place to win the rematch and call it quits. Cormier wins this fight.
That’s what I’ve got for UFC 241. Make sure to tune in live tomorrow on ESPN + because this top-to-bottom is one of the strongest cards they’ve put out in a while. Let’s sweep these bets and keep it rolling. I will be out in Vegas for UFC China so if you guys want to meet up, watch some fights, and make some money, let me know.