Red Sox vs. Yankees Sunday Night Baseball Betting Preview

By: Eduardo Solano

The Boston Red Sox continue their four-game series with the New York Yankees on Sunday night. Here’s a complete preview, including updated odds and our betting pick.

 

Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees

Sunday, August 16, 2020 – 07:08 PM EDT at Yankee Stadium

 

The Numbers Don’t Lie

 

Time to bring in the quants. Comparing the following projections to the MLB odds will help us make the right choice:

FiveThirtyEight: Reds 59 percent

Equivalent Odds (using an Odds Converter): -144

The Yankees opened as -155 favorites, but over at FiveThirtyEight, they already have them at -144 based on our calculations. There’s a gap between the projections and the actual MLB odds.

A difference like this is usually enough for us not to recommend opening up your wallet and/or purse and splashing some money around on the favorite. So what will it be, Human or Machine?

Chris Mazza vs. J.A. Happ

Chris Mazza (0-0, 0.00 ERA, 1.13 WHIP)

Chris Mazza will be making his first start of the season. Mazza has only one relief appearance this year, and it was against the Yankees on August 1st when he threw 2 2/3 scoreless innings and surrendered one hit with three strikeouts and two walks.

This is Mazza’s second season in the majors. The right-hander played with the Mets last year and went 1-1 with a 5.51 ERA and a 1.59 WHIP in 16 1/3 innings over nine relief appearances. The reeling Red Sox are hoping that he can give them at least five innings against this tough Yankees lineup.

The Yankees will be without Giancarlo Stanton, Aaron Judge, and DJ LeMahieu. However, they still have a formidable roster, with Gleyber Torres, Gary Sanchez, and Clint Frazier all heating up in the last two games.

 

J.A. Happ (0-1, 10.29 ERA, 2.14 WHIP)

 

J.A. Happ has been disastrous in two starts this season. Happ lasted just three innings against the Phillies last Wednesday, allowing four earned runs on three hits (one home run) with six walks and just one strikeout in an 11-7 loss.

The veteran left-hander is 11-4 with a 3.00 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP in 25 career appearances (24 starts) against the Red Sox, including 3-0 with a 3.09 ERA and a 0.99 WHIP in four starts last season. The current Red Sox roster is hitting just .241 against Happ. Rafael Devers is 5-for-23 (.217) against him, and Xander Bogaerts is just 7-for-42 (.167).

 

Betting Trends

 

The Boston Red Sox are:

1-5 in their last six games against a left-handed starter

1-6 in their last seven games as a road underdog

1-6 in their last seven road games

0-8 in their last eight games against a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30

 

The New York Yankees are:

4-0 in their last four games overall

4-0 in their last four games against a right-handed starter

43-9 in their last 52 home games against a right-handed starter

50-13 in their last 63 games as a home favorite

46-14 in their last 60 home games

 

Prediction

The Red Sox have lost six straight games, and the Yankees are 8-0 in their last eight games against them. If the Red Sox can win a game in this series, it’s tonight. The problem is that it is also the right game for Happ to get back on track. The Yankees are depleted, but as seen last season and in recent games, this team has the next man up mentality and a deep roster.

The projected Yankees lineup has five batters with a walk rate above 8.5 percent, six batters with a Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) above .340, eight batters with an Isolated Power (ISO) above .185 and six batters with a hard-hit percentage above 36 percent.

 

MLB Pick:

Yankees -1 (-111) (Moneyline: -150, Runline: -1.5 (+125)) at 5Dimes

*-1 created with a runline calculator (https://zcodesystem.com/runline_calc/)