Let me preface this article by saying I’m changing this blog name from ACCDEGENS to OldManACC. Unknowingly to me at the time, there’s already a group out there with a similar name as ACCDEGENS and I don’t want any confusion for my four potential followers.
Well, I’m 30 years old with a head of some seriously gray hair so I figure I might as well just steer right into that curve now.
College football lines come out every Sunday and whilemost every other gambling degenerate is either
1. Losing even more money on the weekend betting NFL
or 2. Giving their college football profits back to the bookie betting NFL, I’m over here scouring data for these early lines. Admittedly, half drunk because I too, can’t quit the NFL.
Seriously though, doesn’t it already seem like the NFL market is going to be nearly impossible to beat week to week this year?
You can handicap talent, coaching, and traveling to name a few but every. single. touchdown. is a coin flip for a fucking penalty now.
If a run play bounces outside it’s almost guaranteed to pick up a holding call. Play action passes and deep routes? Probably going to get holding there with the linemen having to keep their blocks longer. You can be the sharpest son of a bitch out there and get burned by the refs and this year it seems like the refs are on a warpath.
Anyway that’s enough ranting for now. I’m sure I’ll be back at it at some point when I smash my television in rage over a backdoor cover stemming from a pass interference challenge that Casper couldn’t even have gotten away with but for now, let’s move on to some early college football lines.
Look, I’m not here to be the douchebag telling you “well sunny in 1994 I got the Cowboys at +7 and you know what, by closing time they were 47 points favorites.” I’m just saying there is serious value in checking out opening lines especially if you have a feel for the college football market and which way things will shift throughout the week.
Last week, Ohio St opened up as 14-point favorites going into Indiana. I know Indiana has played them tough recently and it was in Bloomington but I knew I wanted action on this game and it was pretty obvious this number was going to get bet up.
It went all the way up to 18.5-19 at some books before falling back down to 17. You’re crossing a few serious key numbers from 14 all the way to 18.5-19. I said all that to say this. If you’re placing all your bets Saturday morning, you’re fucking up. The exception is if you think you’re sharp and believe the public is going to push the line in your favor i.e. you like a dog and believe the public is going to up the spread taking the favorite.
Last thing before moving into games, all of my line movement data will come from a single source because it’s just easier that way and I’m really trying to show trends more than anything but it goes without saying you should be line shopping as always.
Boston College (-7.5) @ Rutgers
This line opened at BC -7 (-106) and I’m seeing it now at -7 (-125) some places to -7.5 (-120) at others. Grab this line now at -7 even if you have to lay the hook and pay a little extra juice.
Look, this seems like an overreaction to me. Kansas lost AT HOME to Coastal Carolina 12-7 and then goes into Chestnut Hill and just beats the shit out of Boston College. Seems like Les Miles had his guys jacked and Boston College was in the locker room sipping tea and eating scones before the game. No way they don’t come out and throttle Rutgers.
I know it’s only week 4 but Rutgers currently ranks 107thout of 130 qualifiers in rush defense. More importantly, they gave up 194 rushing yards to Iowa at 5.0 yards per attempt and 183 rushing yards with 5.4 yards per attempt to shit ass UMass who are right there competing with Bowling Green for the worst FBS team.
Looking into these stats, Boston College is 117th against the rush but Rutgers doesn’t have AJ Dillon so this doesn’t really mean much to me. Look for Boston College to bounce back.
PICK – Boston College -7 (shop around for -7 but I’d still take -7.5)
Ball State @ NC State (-19)
Ball State lost to both Indiana and Florida Atlantic by 10 points. Meh. Those are mediocre teams at best. They did put up some offense though so I’ll give them that but it doesn’t matter for this bet.
NC State had two easy wins in Raleigh the first two weeks but they were really playing nobody (I thought ECU was going to be a lot better this year too). I think their loss to WVU has the market slightly down on NC State so what better time to buy-in. Morgantown is a tough place to play and the Mountaineers desperately needed a win after getting their ass handed to them by Kelly Bryant and the Missouri Tigers the previous week.
This play isn’t stats driven as much as thinking the market is a little low on NC State after their loss. If you dive into it though, A LOT of teams have lost games they should have won on the road. Look at Missouri week 1 in Wyoming.
PICK – NC State -19
Maybe this game doesn’t move much since it isn’t a big game but this fits right into the point of my blog. If you like the bet, take it now in case it moves to 20-21, both key numbers in football handicapping.
Non ACC Early Leans
Washington -5.5 @ BYU
Cal +2.5 @ Ole Miss
Auburn @ Texas A&M (-4)
South Carolina @ Missouri (-9.5)
I was about to list UCF -12 @ Pitt but after looking at this, the line opened at Pitt +2.5 and it’s already jumped this far??? I still think UCF covers but you can’t bet the UCF side when you could’ve gotten a line 10 points more in your favor. Just wanted to add this tidbit to further prove my point of how important it is to be on top of these lines early.