Nets vs. Heat NBA Pick
The Brooklyn Nets and Miami Heat will both be playing their third game in four days when they clash in South Beach on Saturday evening. Does this make the Under the right NBA pick?
Brooklyn Nets vs. Miami Heat
Saturday, February 28 at 7:30 PM ET, American Airlines Arena
Nets-Heat is Hard to Predict
This is not an obvious play at all, the Heat opened as a 7.5-point favorite at BetOnline while FiveThirtyEight projects them at -8. The total is set at 223.5 as of this writing but the Nets have been an Under team this season and while the Heat have been involved in high-scoring affairs often. This is clearly not ideal when crunching the numbers in our study of the game.
Finding an angle is always possible though. As explained above, both teams are lacking significant rest time and they actually have tough games as I write this article. The Nets will be visiting the Hawks while the Heat host the Mavericks. The Heat will not have to travel. Does that give them an edge? Both teams have played three games in four days that can lead to an Under? Possibly but I went over the rosters and found some angles.
The Iguodala and Crowder Factor
Andre Iguodala played with the Warriors for six seasons and won three NBA championships. He even won an NBA Finals MVP award in 2015. The Warriors traded him to the Grizzlies but he never wanted to play with them and sat out the 2019-20 season until the trade to the Heat. Miami immediately signed him to a two-year, $30 million extension and he has done his part defensively (plus-0.2 Defensive Box Plus/Minus).
Jae Crowder is thriving with the Heat, playing the best basketball of his career. It is a small sample size but Crowder (plus-2.1 Offensive Box Plus/Minus) is averaging 14.6 points and 6.9 rebounds in 30.1 minutes over seven games (one start) as of February 27.
Crowder Will Regress on Offense
Jae Crowder is shooting 47.1 percent from the field and 44.1 percent from 3-point range. He was making 29.3 percent of his 3-point shots (5.9 attempts per game) and he is a 33.6 percent career shooter from distance. Expect him to regress.
The Nets rank eighth in the league in 3-point defense, allowing their opponents to make just 34.6 percent of their attempts. The Heat rank second in that department at 34.1, so they can neutralize Joe Harris (40.6 percent), Caris LeVert (39.0 percent), Taurean Prince (35.0 percent), Garrett Temple (32.5 percent), Spencer Dinwiddie (30.6 percent) and Wilson Chandler (30.2) percent, who all shoot well from beyond the arc.
Betting Trends and Prediction
The Under is:
7-1 in Brooklyn’s last eight games playing on zero days rest
6-1 in Brooklyn’s last seven games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game
4-1 in Brooklyn’s last five games following a straight-up loss
5-2 in Brooklyn’s last seven road games
7-3 in Brooklyn’s last 10 overall
8-3 in Miami’s last 11 games against a team with a losing straight up record
10-3-1 in the last 14 meetings
5-1 in the last six meetings in Miami
Both teams can have a hard time making 3-pointers and we also have to factor in that the Nets can throw DeAndre Jordan (plus-2.0 Defensive Box Plus/Minus) and Jarrett Allen (plus-1.3 Defensive Box Plus/Minus) at Bam Adebayo (plus-1.8 Offensive Box Plus/Minus). If the Nets prevent Adebayo from going off then the likelihood of a low-scoring game increases significantly.