Champions League Match Day 5 Part II
Champions League Match Day 5 Part II
By: Cody Gehlhausen
I am coming into Wednesday’s matches on the back of a 2-1 day yesterday including a banker. That puts me at a record of 5-2 with +4.05 units of combining Premier League and UCL. With that being said, here are my picks and leans today.
Valencia v Chelsea
This match finishes 1-0 to Valencia in London in the reverse fixture. Valencia, Chelsea, and Ajax all sit level on seven points which means this match is absolutely crucial to both involved. Chelsea has scored in eight straight away matches, and both teams have scored in seven of those eight. I expect Frank Lampard to roll out a pretty much identical lineup that we saw against City. Valencia has scored in eight of nine away from home matches this year and six of those nine saw both teams score. Valencia hasn’t been very good this season in La Liga sitting tenth. I’m really not sure why everyone believes in their home cooking. With 20 goals allowed and 20 scored so far this year for Valencia, I see goals in this one.
Play: BTTS & o2.5 goals -115
Zenit v Lyon
We go to Russia for the other early match today. In the reverse fixture, we saw it finish 1-1 in Lyon. Zenit needs all three points in this one as they sit three back from Lyon in the group. The Russians have only lost one home match this year, to Leipzig. In those nine matches, they allowed more than one goal to be scored only once. Looking at Lyon, they have lost three of their last four away from home. Strong lean here for me.
Lean: Zenit +100
Barcelona v Dortmund
The two powerhouses meet at Camp Nou after a dull 0-0 finish at Signal Iduna. Dortmund has been poor as of late, where Barcelona are back at full strength and rolling. Dortmund hasn’t scored in three straight away matches. Barca has won seven of their last eight at home this year and four of those wins were by two-plus goals.
Lean: Barcelona -1 -112
Liverpool v Napoli
Always a great matchup between these two sides, and we will see them face off at Anfield. Napoli dominated a 2-0 win in Naples, but it’s all about the Reds here. It is damn near impossible to take a point in Anfield, let alone win. Napoli will get a goal here, however. I know they are short going forward with Milik and Insigne out of the lineup, but Liverpool has allowed a goal at Anfield in all ten matches this season. Napoli has also managed to score in four straight away from home. With Callejon, Mertens, and Lozano upfront, I do not see them having an issue getting their goal. Heavy lean here as well.
Lean: #SquidSpecial BTTS & LIV ML +180
Slavia Prague v Inter Milan
Huge match here for Inter. They need all three points here, no question. Inter sits three points back from Dortmund, and they will host Barcelona in a deciding fixture next round. At San Siro in the reverse fixture, the match finished 1-1. I see Inter going into Prague and getting all three points they need. Dortmund and Barca managed to come away with all three, so Inter MUST follow suit to stay alive.
Play: Inter ML +133
Lille v Ajax
Champions League darlings Ajax will travel to France to take on high flying Lille. In Holland, we saw 3-0 in favor of Ajax and I expect goals here again as well. Ajax needs all three is that they are level with Chelsea and Valencia in the group. Five straight matches for Ajax have seen them score at least two goals. And they have scored four goals in three of their last four matches. Ajax will see two defenders out of the match with Blind and Veltman on a red. This will bode well for Lille as they have scored in eight of their nine home matches this year. Keep an eye on Osimhen for Lille, he is a goal-scoring machine.
Play: BTTS & o2.5 goals -139
Genk v RB Salzburg
The top-scoring side in all of Europe travels to Belgium after a brutal beat-down in the reverse fixture that finished 6-2 in favor of the Austrians. I really see more of the same in this on. Genk sits 9th in the Belgian League, which is absolutely horrendous. They may just be the worst side in the entire tournament. They are winless in their last five matches in all competitions. Look for Erling Haaland to get a goal or three in this one as he has scored twenty-six goals in just eighteen matches already this season., seven of those in UCL.
Play: RB Salzburg -1 -109
RB Leipzig v Benfica
Top of the group RB will host the Portuguese side Benfica here. In Portugal, this finishes 2-1 in favor of Benfica, and I really see more of the same here. Goals will have simply due to the sheer amount of injuries to RB. Upemacano came off against Koln last weekend, and their other two center halves Konate and Mukiele are still recovering from injury. Bundle that with the fact that they are most likely going to rotate their squad due to qualification already, and you should see goals. Benfica has managed to score in every away match this season, and shouldn’t have trouble here. I am only waiting to see how RB will line up going forward before making this a play.
Lean: BTTS & o2.5 goals –