Playoff football is here! We have 4 banger games as the playoffs commence, so lets pick some games. You can follow me on Twitter @jeffnadu. As always all of my lines referenced are from the great BetOnline. If you don’t have an account, go get one.
BILLS VS TEXANS: The Bills are currently a 2.5 pt underdog on the road, and I really like them here in this matchup to win the game. All year Houston’s defense has been a real downer. JJ Watt isn’t gonna make this group the 85 Bears. They are dead last in the NFL in opponent RZ TD percentage and the second worst league in the league in 3rd down opponent conversion percentage. Houston’s offense is good and they have some big play capability, but Buffalo is the best defense in the league and I think they limit the big plays considerably and get to Deshaun Watson. The offensive line is and continues to be an issue giving up almost 2 sacks a game. Josh Allen acts as a game manager who does just enough and they move to 5-0 this season as a road doggie. They get a road win here 23-17.
TITANS VS PATRIOTS: I know all we will hear this week is how Tom Brady and the Pats will automatically turn it on like they usually do in the playoffs. But this team is the worst offense in some time under Brady and Bill. Tom Brady has clearly lost a bit of a step and not having Gronk has been clearly bothering him all season. Still though, this is a NE team that should be able to move the ball on the Titans. Tennessee is a team that struggle to get to the QB and the back end has been riddled with injuries. It’s one of the reasons they are giving up over 255 passing yards a game and are allowing almost 7 yards a pass attempt. The Titans offense has been terrific under revived Ryan Tannehill. In his ten games at the helm, they are averaging over 30 ppg. Let Derrick Henry guide you on the ground through his bruising running style which will set up the big play. Stephon Gilmore was abused last week by Devante Parker, you might just be starting to see some cracks developing for NE in the back end of that defense at the wrong time. Tennessee will move the ball and be in position late to win this game, keep in mind they lead the league by a wide margin in TD percentage in the red zone. Titans +5 get a cover.
VIKINGS VS SAINTS: This was a pretty tough game for me. The Saints are a terrific team in that dome. They have a really good defense, one of the best quarterbacks and offenses in the league and a great coach, plus a raucous atmosphere. I worry considerably here about the Minnesota defense. The corners have looked slow and really poor at times and safety Harrison Smith can be gameplanned for. Look at what Doug Pederson did to him in the NFC Championship game in 2018. Still though, Cousins has been really effective this season and the Vikings have put up 27 ppg on the road this season. They face a pass defense from the Saints, that I like and don’t love and while this rush defense is good, it’s not great sitting in the middle of the league in rush yards per attempt. Both groups have been effective scoring touchdowns in the red zone and the QB. Seems like a 31-24 type of game to me. I’m thinking OVER 49.
SEAHAWKS VS EAGLES: Final game of the weekend and it should be a fun one. Currently the road team is the favorite here at -1.5. The wrong team is favored here. These teams are both a mess injury wise, but the Eagles are more equipped to handle it. Seattle has very little as far as weapons to work with and I think the run game will struggle getting going against a stout Philly run defense. Chris Carson and Rashad Penny has big games earlier this year against the Eagles, but they will both be out with injuries here. Russell Wilson is terrific, but this is a large ask to go on the road against a hungry opponent and win. People will point to the 16-9 victory Seattle had in Philly earlier this season. This now is a different Eagles team to the better and this is a Seattle team different to the worst. Keep in mind in that game, Seattle has 2 big plays for TD’s. 2 plays that likely won’t happen in this one. I worry about Seattle’s OL against Fletcher Cox and the boys and Carson and the merry band of practice squaders advance in a stadium they have won 19 of 25 in. Eagles 24-21